Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 35.710229 40.362060 45.842077 52.903479 61.965783 73.519051 89.936112
2025-05-11 29.271557 34.923276 42.261716 52.927417 68.920639 93.885956 141.112103
2025-05-18 24.944853 30.829721 38.990679 51.941757 73.961394 115.425961 224.530727
2025-05-25 22.265544 28.286462 37.088574 52.141900 80.892829 146.928371 422.348326
2025-06-01 20.152474 26.125193 35.209773 51.689133 86.430475 183.219111 966.519057
2025-06-08 18.458277 24.302792 33.471178 50.915241 90.961462 225.904063 4092.773706
2025-06-15 17.113985 22.823594 32.015217 50.240437 95.474210 281.513224 NaN
2025-06-22 16.053164 21.654475 30.884388 49.898737 100.827701 363.336636 NaN
2025-06-29 15.016334 20.413698 29.451089 48.575978 102.755612 441.266741 NaN
2025-07-06 14.688737 20.281806 29.956413 51.613467 121.123032 876.913030 NaN
2025-07-13 13.955153 19.404058 28.969501 50.952341 126.041462 1328.090244 NaN
2025-07-20 13.421787 18.817763 28.458972 51.337931 135.983068 2945.218962 NaN
2025-07-27 12.952523 18.312877 28.064700 51.995085 148.722381 21382.226530 NaN
2025-08-03 12.475857 17.759195 27.513443 52.128639 159.722077 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.949962 17.082656 26.646508 51.214479 164.345077 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.568191 16.636580 26.205846 51.430892 177.159319 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 11.166160 16.128106 25.586299 50.997329 185.654870 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.772029 15.610971 24.903291 50.244308 191.418413 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.415370 15.142714 24.285860 49.585767 197.834232 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 10.108565 14.749539 23.797875 49.252116 207.553353 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.755298 14.253664 23.050990 47.957667 206.571837 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.712392 14.329681 23.559626 50.930312 260.680472 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.438722 13.958374 23.040997 50.283609 269.649062 NaN NaN